It is increasingly evident that Trump is determined to be re-elected, whatever the cost. At what point will referring to him as “leader of the free world” become an oxymoron?
The basic assumption of liberal democracy is that governments are chosen in regular and fair popular elections. In Australia we ensure this through the control of non-partisan election commissions and compulsory voting.
The United States has a ramshackle system which allows for considerable variation between states, and frequent allegations of obstacles being created to prevent people voting, whether through rules around voter registration or the availability of polling places. Already there are reports of intimidation by Trump supporters during early voting in Virginia.
When Americans vote for President they actually vote for a slate of electors whose votes will then be tallied to determine the state’s vote in the Electoral College, where each state’s vote equals its number of Congressional representatives. Hillary Clinton’s huge majorities in California and New York meant she out-polled Donald Trump nationally by three million votes but lost the Electoral College.
That result could be repeated this November. More frightening is the prospect that Donald Trump will find ways to circumvent losing the Presidency even if the majority for Biden is clear cut. His refusal to commit to accepting the result of the election is a clear indication that he is preparing for what would in effect be a constitutional coup.
For months now Trump has been casting doubt on the validity of mail-in [postal] votes, which are believed to favour Democrats, and which are likely to be far greater this year because of coronavirus. There is no evidence of widespread fraud in postal voting, anymore than there was evidence for Trump’s claim in 2016 that millions of fraudulent votes gave Clinton the popular majority.
But postal votes are often received and counted after election night; in the 2018 Congressional elections a number of districts were won by Democrats after the full count had been recorded, in several cases after long delays. In the 2000 Presidential elections it took a month for the election to be decided in favour of George W Bush after a decision by the Supreme Court to halt a total recount of votes in Florida.
It is possible that there will be no clear result this year on November 3rd and that hundreds of thousands of votes will remain to be counted in tightly contested states. At that point, Trump has indicated he will challenge any further counting and claim massive irregularities in postal voting.
Both parties are already preparing for complex legal challenges which could drag on for longer than the battle over Florida in 2000. In the end, these challenges can end up before the Supreme Court, which is why Trump is so determined to nominate a replacement for Ruth Bader Ginsburg.
But some Republicans are now talking of a further option which has never been used in American history, and that is to override the popular vote and refer the votes of states where there is a contested result back to state legislatures.
We take for granted that the votes of the Electoral College are based on the popular vote, and the Supreme Court has recently ruled that electors must support the candidate to whom they are pledged. But the Constitution says nothing about popular votes: in Article 2 it states that “Each state shall appoint, in such manner as the legislature thereof may direct, a number of electors…”
In a situation where there is enough doubt about the legitimacy of the popular vote a Republican-controlled state legislature could use this provision to choose its members of the Electoral College. This is not fantasy; it has already been mooted as a possibility by Republicans in Pennsylvania.
Pennsylvania has a Democratic Governor who would presumably veto any such move by the Republican legislature. But there are several close states—Arizona, Florida, Iowa—where both the governor and state houses are Republican controlled.
If Trump’s supporters believe that the apparent result is fraudulent the option of allowing the state legislature to handpick the Republican electoral slate will be tempting. It is increasingly evident that Trump is determined to be re-elected, whatever the cost. At what point will referring to him as “leader of the free world” become an oxymoron?
Dennis Altman, a Professorial Fellow in Human Security at LaTrobe University, is the author of 14 books, since Homosexual: Oppression & Liberation was first published in 1972.
In 2006, The Bulletin listed Dennis Altman as one of the 100 most influential Australians ever, and he was appointed a Member of the Order of Australia in 2008. He has been president of the AIDS Society of Asia and the Pacific, a member of the Governing Council of the International AIDS Society and the Board of Oxfam Australia. His most recent books are Queer Wars [with Jon Symons], Unrequited Love: Diary of an Accidental Activist, and God Save the Queen.
Comments
7 responses to “How Trump could win”
No national voter registration base, an archaic system of state electors, two woeful candidates both representing Wall Street instead of Main Street, two candidate supporter bases totally at odds with each other, a fractured and heavily armed population being encouraged to not concede under any circumstances, and whatever the outcome of this election, the likelihood that the contested results will be taken to the street is high.
While I do not think a military intervention is in any way a good thing, I admit it is a possibility. There will be police intervention. America seems to be in a bad place, getting worse.
Russel Crowe, when accepting the Academy Award for his starring role in Gladiator, reportedly commented: God bless America, God save the Queen, God defend New Zealand, and thank Christ for Australia.
I could not agree more.
Has to be a landslide of walk in votes on the day for Biden – polls show he will get 330 electoral college votes. Nonetheless Trump will not concede – the period called the interregnum is the time Trump will play merry hell with democracy. God bless America.
What the Trump period of governance, or lack of it, shows is that not only the Republican Party is a disaster area-as it has been for the past thirty years–, but that there are also major problems with the Democrats. Surely they could have found a more acceptable candidate for president than Biden, yet that they could not seems to show how much the party has become factionalised. Whilst both parties tend to represent Wall Street, one would have thought the Democrats would have made a much stronger push to the disaffected working classes in a genuine effort to improve their lot, but that does not seem to have happened.
The outlook from November the second to the inauguration in mid-January does not look promising.
To be fair as far back as August Hillary was telling Biden ‘not to concede under any circumstances’. But I’d argue … If ever there was a time to not vote for your candidates maybe it is now – the shit show in the USA is the perfect example of when and why. Arguably the two worst candidates in living memory – yes even worse than Killary v Trump.
Biden is a lifetime achiever for the worst aspects of american culture and politics. For decades he has helped undermine decency democracy and a fair go for the ordinary joe and jan. As Vice during the Obama years he is effectively jointly guilty of running coups terrorists and creating endless refugee waves and destroying more countries than Trump has even yet achieved.
Trump is the discombobulating queen on the worlds stage. A lowbrow thug whose only redeeming feature is that he might prevent the establishment from placing their own chosen sock puppet on a higher pedestal.
Turds … the pair of them.
Trump could also win fair and square. I think he will. I can’t imagine Bernie supporters will vote for Biden. I wouldn’t. I would vote for the Greens candidate, Howie Hawkins, a traditional trade unionist.
The survival of electoral democracy depends on public acceptance that the results are “free and fair”. Very large numbers of officials are employed in the count, and the public need to be satisfied that their work was free of cheating. The closer the result the more difficult it will be to satisfy them. Once it becomes impossible, the results will not be accepted by a large proportion of the population and it’s all over for electoral democracy. Given the level of bitter partisanship amongst almost everyone including officials, and the appalling standard of the candidates, the US has probably reached that point.
Military takeover is the only possibility. That may not be as bad as it sounds. Frank, confidential, and detailed discussion between Russian and American generals has averted US/Russian conflict in Syria. If a general takes over America, the Chinese will immediately ask for extensive, confidential military-to-military discussions. With the fate of the world out of the hands of populists, there would be some hope for peace.
“Voter Suppression – Look at Georgia” in NYT 2 days ago.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/27/us/elections/voting-rights-georgia.html