Global security alliances are in turmoil, and Australia needs to critically rethink its defence and foreign affairs policies.
I have watched with alarm as Donald Trump and the Republican administration upend traditional alliances. This is the harshest wake-up call since the Fall of Singapore in 1942.
Trump may be gone in four years, but the Republican Party and America’s political landscape are being fundamentally changed.
An immediate concern is the future of the American-built nuclear-powered submarines due from the early 2040s through to the late 2050s under AUKUS.
There is an increasing likelihood that the US will never build us the submarines, as Trump administration officials have made clear.
I have previously supported the idea of acquiring nuclear-powered submarines and they are preferred if we want to operate for long periods in the northern hemisphere, potentially in a conflict with China.
But we need to rethink the submarines and Australia’s strategic priorities because today the US is not a consistent and reliable ally.
We need to defend Australia’s interests and deter aggression, but AUKUS and confrontation with China are not the only choice.
If our priority is a focus on protecting the Australian continent, conventionally-powered diesel submarines could suffice and are an advantage in shallow, continental shelf waters.
Conventional submarines, long-range missiles and strong alliances with the archipelago nations to our immediate north are the basis of an alternative to the China-war strategy.
We are facing catastrophic threats
Since retiring as chief of the Defence Force, I have participated in many war game exercises focused on conflict with China, and in every case the American side lost.
That is a pragmatic reason to review strategic policy, but there is a more important one.
The first duty of any government is to protect the people, and we are now facing catastrophic threats that once seemed distant possibilities, such as global pandemics and artificial intelligence gone awry. But the evidence is clear that the greatest threat to all humanity is climate disruption.
Our leading scientists, senior Western security analysts and world leaders such as the UN secretary-general all say we will face existential climate risks. Within the lifetime of most Australians, large parts of south and south-east Asia will simply become unliveable due to unbearable heat, as will parts of northern Australia.
Crop yields will fall, and so will some states. People will fight to survive, or be forced to move. Australia will face a climate refugee inflow of a scale that we simply cannot imagine. Think millions of people.
Stopping the use of fossil fuels and transforming the way our economies work is a huge undertaking. So is preparing Australia and our region for the climate impacts we cannot avoid.
Together these tasks will require levels of fast research and development, and the deployment and sharing of economic resources, in a mobilisation unprecedented in peacetime.
Professor Will Steffen once said that real climate action means making climate the number-one priority of economics and politics.
Among other things, that means putting strategic rivalries to one side in favour of co-operation between states in this fight for survival.
Last year, my colleagues from the Australian Security Leaders Climate Group and I put out a climate and security plan to “protect, prevent and prepare”. Key proposed actions included:
- Understanding that global co-operation rather than conflict is key to responding to the climate crisis, and act accordingly by building alliances with big and small Asia-Pacific governments for a regional climate mobilisation.
- Increasing support for developing nations to facilitate their preparedness and prevention plans.
- Partnering with nations in the region to deploy a monitoring system to identify potential food insecurity hotspots, and fund enhancement of food, supply chain and energy resilience in the region.
Defence leaders have some hard questions to answer
Yes, China is a regional superpower, but so is an increasingly authoritarian and unpredictable United States. There are many regional security concerns: conflict in south Asia and the Himalayas, the rise of militarised non-state actors, the fragility of many states, and climate disruption.
It is a question of prioritising the biggest and most likely risks.
We have been in a long-term alliance with the US, but our economic future is in Asia and China is our most important trading partner. We can work with other Asian nations to find ways to live with China and build trust and co-operation.
We now face crucial security decisions, and former prime ministers and foreign ministers are now speaking more plainly than at any time since ANZUS was signed in 1951.
There are questions we must answer. Are the AUKUS submarines a strategic priority? Is being part of a war with China in our interest? Should Australia’s strategy instead focus on regional climate security and preventing state breakdown? Should we commit to broad co-operation with nations on the frontline of climate disruption, with climate-focused agreements on aid, tax, trade, technology, finance and equity?
In a nutshell, should Australia do whatever it can to reduce regional tensions and build co-operation based on shared values of a safe future for humanity?
Republished from The Canberra Times, 31 March 2025
Admiral Chris Barrie (retd) is former chief of the Australian Defence Force. He is an executive committee member of the Australian Security Leaders Climate Group.