He would rather forego his parliamentary pension than admit it, but
our prime minister is unobtrusively softening his hardline stance on climate change.
Not to the point of bipartisan agreement in the national interests –
that would be too big an ask. But there are signs that the decade-long
pitched battle may de-escalate to a heavily armed truce.
The delay could well be disastrous – Australia has a lot of catching up
to do, and the rest of the world has become very tired of waiting for
our intransigence.
But better late than never, as they say. Scott Morrison might come
late to the party, but if he brings a serious contribution to the punch
bowl, he may be allowed to wassail along with the others.
The trigger, of course, is Joe Biden. The incoming president has made
it clear that America will not only re-join the Paris agreement, but
intends to lead it. And this will be his first priority in office. Next
February, Morrison’s isolation will become even more stark.
Which is why he is backing off. Last week there was a significant
concession: Australia’s insistence that using left over carbon credits
to fund our 2030 emission targets was a legitimate ploy when all the
other players deemed it unacceptable was quietly sidelined – not yet
abandoned, but it is clearly on the way out.
Morrison continues to blather about meeting and beating our
commitments in a canter, and how he proposes to square that circle
is yet to be revealed. But he is becoming resigned to the fact that he
will not be allowed to cheat: he must be seen as part of the solution,
not part of the problem.
He is still resisting the most important goal, zero emissions by 2050.
But in a sense it hardly matters because it is effectively locked in: all
the premiers and chief ministers, the business community, the
agriculture sector, even many of the miners have signed up, and the
rest of the world has moved on. Whether Morrison likes it or not, he
will be dragged along in the backwash.
There will always be recalcitrants – the silliest, our so-called Energy
Minister Angus Taylor stubbornly continues to puff gas from every
orifice in the fond belief that this is the answer long after the question
has been abandoned. Ticking off the Narrabri gas fields is a bad idea
on every level – environmental, economic and political. It will play
briefly to the coalition rump, but the majority within the government,
even the Nationals, cannot maintain their rage for much longer.
The transition will not be easy but it must be negotiated and finally
Morrison is sidling towards the inevitable flip and if he has any
hesitation, there is an even more impeccable source to fall back on.
Last week Rupert Murdoch went out of his way to insist that not
everyone in his empire was a climate denialist. Well, there may be a
couple who aren’t, although we haven’t heard much from them in the
last few years. But now it has become imperative for the mogul to
start cosying up to the new regime in Washington.
His interests in his seldom-visited dominions in the Antipodes are
less urgent, but the Dark Lord has spoken, and his words will he
heard across the ocean. And Morrison, as always, will be listening.
Mungo MacCallum is a veteran political journalist and commentator. His books include Run Johnny Run, Poll Dancing, and Punch and Judy.
mungomccallum@staging-johnmenadue.kinsta.cloud
Comments
8 responses to “Is Morrison finally nearing the tipping point on climate?”
As a 2007 freshman, Scotty won’t have a parliamentary pension to forego.
Morrison as a politician defies the Peter Principle, and not in a good way. In politics, people often get promoted beyond their level of incompetence. Morrison has been well beyond his level of incompetence for quite some time, and continues to deny reality.
The trigger is economics, Biden just adds to our pain. 30% of NEM electricity is now supplied by renewables, and wholesale prices have almost halved in the last three years. On the NEM through Spring gas generation has fallen to 2,500 GWh this year from 4,800 GWh in 2017. In sunnier climates around the world solar+ batteries are out-competing gas for peaker plants. For many Australian customers at current interest rates, rooftop solar is cheaper than transmission distribution and retail costs so even if coal power prices were to magically halve the rooftop solar revolution will continue
China, Japan, Korea, Taiwan and India are taking large steps to minimise first coal and then gas imports, not just by increasing renewable power generation but almost as significantly, increasing energy efficiency. For example, Japan’s electricity demand is falling about 2% per year
It is also an energy security issue for all these countries, generating their own energy at home isolates them from the wild swings in prices of world energy markets as well as economic blockades.
Finally as China and India improve rail networks for domestic coal distribution and Russia, Qatar and the US increase export capacity for low cost natural gas, Australia’s relatively high cost supply will no longer be necessary
Australia needs to plan for at least half its coal markets to disappear over the next seven years and probably about 20-30% of gas sales.
The only way for us to continue to compete is to have aggressive goals to supply green metals and products such as hydrogen and ammonia, otherwise our Asian customers will follow the emerging trend in Europe to use excess wind and solar to make their own hydrogen, ammonia and artificial methane. It won’t be as cheap as we can make it but if we are not in the market what is the alternative.
Solar output varies markedly every 400 years for 6 decades. Mostly cooling but droughts and floods will make it hard to be sure. Policies designed around false science have abounded in history.
Cui bono?
Patrick,
Why do you and other climate change deniers continue to peddle such nonsense. Physics 101 teaches us that increasing the level of ‘green house’ gases, which for millennia have ensured that the Earth retains a temperature range which is hospitable to life and the development of intelligent life, will lead to an increase in temperatures which ultimately will make life as we have known it, impossible.
I can assure you that Climate Change is not false science .What Morrison and his followers preach certainly is. Mungo is as usual right on the money on this issue.
Gavin A. O’Brien, FRMetS.
I say climate does change.It is massively influenced by the star.
CO2 is nothing compared to water vapour as a greenhouse gas. Greenhouse gas is a misnomer. They reflect heat, infra red radiation. Thus they cool a planet. Your pedlars used to say “warming”. I see you call it “change” now…. what happened, changed the “science?”
I see you do not address my point about the Sun.
Why not?
Mr Murdoch says no climate change denial around here – and how many people thought he meant human caused global warming (because that was what the question was about) when he was referring to the “but the climate is always changing” sort of climate change? His people invented that line. It is hard not be cynical, so I won’t try.
Morrison cannot commit to clean energy we don’t know the full costs of? Does anyone really know how much the “default” coal and gas option would cost in 30 years time? Would such a costing even include the climate and health externalities? Anyone who has a plan with costings that long out is dreaming.
Having a longer term goal, yes. Plans for the near term that are in keeping with that longer term goal, yes. Certainty? The only certainty is that future Australians will be badly hurt by global failure of ambition – and continuing support for reduced global ambition by our national government. What a bad bushfire season will be like with 3 or 4 or 5 C degrees of average global warming, that translates to 4 or 5.5 or 7 C degrees over land in Australia, is something I struggle to think about. Alarmist? Alarmist is claiming a goal of zero emissions will doom us.
Saying he accepts the need for lowered emissions looks more like a way for Morrison and team to avoid having to argue anuntentable contrary position that that is better achieved by mouthing empty platitudes whilst doing the opposite. Saying it is serious looks more like an ironic bow to imaginary “political correctness” than sincerity. No “concession” to clean energy comes from this government without equal or better concessions to fossil fuels. Every success at emissions reductions comes from policies they opposed but were unable to prevent. Now they want one of the architects of Australian Doubt, Deny, Delay climate politics to be running the OECD. Hard not to be cynical.