We must stop celebrating trivial wins in this war of cataclysmic consequences. The pretence that we are making a significant difference may make us feel better but it lets us settle into the complacent delusion that one day someone will sort it out in time.
Here is the bottom line that we must face up to:
The successes we celebrate are making no noticeable difference to the atmospheric CO2 that forces climate change, because they are too trivial. Even the global Covid-19 pandemic still doesn’t show up as reducing even the rate of growth in emissions, partly because it takes time for atmospheric CO2 to respond to change. If we reduce emissions to the atmosphere, oceans may dissolve less, buffering the change.
Moreover, according to Professor Will Steffen, we have already triggered nine out of 16 climate feedback loops – so if we reduce emissions from human activity, that’s not going to stop the feedback loops from continuing to accelerate feedback emissions, such as:
- Bushfires globally – NSW and QLD in 2019/20, WA currently!
- Melting tundra releasing methane
- Reduced reflectiveness of arctic regions as ice melts
Our greatest successes seem to be nowhere near enough to even offset the rate at which these feedback loops are relentlessly growing emissions. We are fighting a losing battle.
The excellent “What Lies Beneath” report (Spratt & Dunlop) looks at IPCC forecasts through a precautionary lens (instead of the “most likely” scenario lens of the politically moderated IPCC reports). Combining this with the “Hothouse Earth” research (Steffen et al) into climate feedbacks, suggests that there is now more than a 10% chance that we are already past the point of no return to potentially un-survivable 4-6 Degrees C of global warming.
If a global pandemic-forced recession can’t offset the rate of growth in emissions from feedback loops, perhaps we have already lost control of our climate – our children and grandchildren’s futures may already be at risk. The collapse of civilisation (David Attenborough) and the extinction of our own and 90% of other species seems almost inevitable! Do I help my daughter with her science degree, or do I send her to live with a remote Indigenous community to learn how to find water in the desert, find bush-tucker and hunt?
We need to tell the full unedited truth, however uncomfortable, and start demanding change at the scale required from every level of our governments, our financial institutions, our corporations and at home, including in everything we do, buy and invest in.
In this next decade, where we still have a sliver of a chance, we must stop celebrating trivial wins in a war of cataclysmic consequences. The pretence that we are making a significant difference may make us feel better but it also lets us all settle into the comfortably complacent delusion that one day someone will sort it out in time.
We cannot have a gas-led recovery, we must not be diverted by misleading silver bullet cons, like renewables being spruiked by the fossil fuel industries or by the technology myth of carbon capture and storage.
We must do all of the right things, in the right order, informed by best available precautionary science, without distractions that delay or obfuscate the changes needed.
We need radical transformation of the grid to enable rapid decarbonisation with renewables before 2030, coupled to reforestation and carbon draw-down farming, as well as some high risk geoengineering. The latter needs to be researched now, with the same urgency and at the same pace that we researched Covid vaccinations.
We must use our votes, our buying and investing power and protest peacefully but vigorously to confront our psychopathic, corrupted governments and the political parties that take money from fossil fuel vested interests and put their interests before our own children and grandchildren.
What grotesque conceit that our politicians and fossil fuel executives would sacrifice a survivable future for a few years of ego building power or money. A national strike led by our youth to force change is not excessive when so much is at stake and it’s perhaps the only thing that would get the attention of a world driven by the delusion that only GDP growth matters.
Nigel Howard is an expert in Life Cycle Assessment and Energy Use in Buildings. He is a former Director of the UK Centre for Sustainable Construction and a former Vice President of the US Green Building Council, pioneering environmental rating systems for buildings and communities. He founded the Edge Environment Consultancy in Manly and the convenor of the Northern Beaches Climate Action Network, comprising over 50 climate groups.
Comments
6 responses to “Just a sliver of a chance: the uncomfortable truth of insufficient climate action”
It is not possible to argue with the basic laws of physics and with the principles of climate science.
If and when the full story of global warming is told, as a sequel to “Merchants of Doubt” by Naomi Oreskes, the willful ignorance and blind naivety of many people, and the unforgivable criminality of those who have been lying and continue to lie, presiding over the sixth mass extinction of species, will be obvious.
It is doubtful a new round of Nuremberg trials would ensue.
Almost the only heroes will be the children, lead by Greta Thunberg.
Dr Andrew Glikson, Earth and climate scientist.
If hothouse earth does indeed lead to collapse of civilisation as David Attenborough has warned, then there certainly won’t be any Nuremberg trials and there may be no history – if there is it will be new verses in Aboriginal song lines which attest to the folly of the industrial age that Mother Earth had to correct.
“trivial wins” indeed. I take it that this phrase suggests that Smirky Morrison has made some blathering and prattling maybe concessions on climate change.
I suspect that this is more related to the fact that Matthius Cormann, now a Road to Damascus convert to climate change as he gallivants throughout Europe on the taxpayer dollar, is seeking some support from Smirky, hence Smirky’s tip toeing around the subject.
Should Cormann fail in his quest, no doubt Smirky will pivot very quickly back to his fossil fuel and Newscorp urgers, and everything will be back where it started from.
Thanks Nigel for adding to the increasing number of attempts to convey the seriousness of the situation, which is not generally recognised. Obviously the global predicament goes far beyond the carbon emissions issue you focus on, basically being about the fact that the amount of producing and consuming going on is grossly unsustainable. Simple arithmetic shows that for the expected 2050 world population to live as we in rich countries expect to given normal economic growth we would need at least 13 planet earths to draw resources from. To be on such a path is not just absurd, it is now suicidal. Yet few seem to understand or care, certainly no mainstream governments do. So your fears are justified; I see no chance that there will be a sensible response before the time of great troubles impacts. The only hope is that the small but growing numbers who do see that there must be transition to far simpler lifestyles and systems become capable of establishing a stable, just and frugal new localised paradigm when the dust clears.
Thanks Ted and Greg. Good thoughts – I think the two most potent actions/movements are the students protests which are changing hearts and minds and the divestment campaigns that are changing investment. The impacts themselves also drive home that Climate change is not a far off issue for future generations to deal with – it’s here and NOW and will accelerate dramatically. The most concerning of all though is the feedback mechanisms that are kicking in – 9 of 16 already triggered. This will likely happen by or before 2030 and then its too late to say I wish we’d done…… Only super-risky geoengineering can save our species once we get there. There’s already a 10% chance that it’s already too late and we seem to be too stupid to appreciate the enormity!
Thanks Nigel and Ted for an excellent article and comments. I do not know how the ‘average Australian’ can be made aware that drastic action must be taken on climate change. The ethos of this country has always been “steady as it goes” and “she’ll be right now”, attitudes both complacent and irresponsible. In addition, the short-termism, preventing an extended look into the future to see the true consequences of climate change, is now chronic, especially at the senior levels of government.
If 80% of voters wrote letters to the PM, members of cabinet and the opposition shadow cabinet, would that make a difference? One would hope so, but it is a pure fantasy to expect it to happen. Most of us on P & I are speaking to each other, but our discourse needs to be extended further, but this will never happen given the state of the MSM now.