Public distrust in the reliability of the U.S. nuclear umbrella has sharply increased, with a majority of South Koreans now supporting the development of their own nuclear weapons, a recent survey shows.
The survey results released last month reflect a growing belief that the U.S. extended deterrence to the region, often referred to as a “nuclear umbrella,” is inadequate in addressing North Korea’s escalating nuclear threat.
Calls for self-nuclear armament
The poll, conducted between Aug. 26 to 28 among 1,006 adults jointly by the JoongAng Ilbo, an affiliate of the Korea JoongAng Daily, and the East Asia Institute (EAI), found that 47.4 percent of respondents disagreed with the notion that the U.S.-provided nuclear umbrella is sufficient to counter North Korea’s nuclear threat. In contrast, 41.2 percent of the respondents expressed trust in U.S. nuclear deterrence.
The results show a marked shift from a year earlier when 57.6 percent of respondents supported the South Korea-U.S. alliance’s strategy, including the Washington Declaration of April 2023, which aimed to enhance extended deterrence measures against North Korea.
Alongside this growing skepticism of U.S. security guarantees, public support for South Korea’s own nuclear armament has surged. According to the poll, 71.4 percent of respondents believe South Korea should develop its own nuclear weapons if North Korea refuses to abandon its nuclear arsenal. This represents a rebound from last year when support for nuclear armament dipped to 58.5 percent following the announcement of the Washington Declaration from 69.6 percent in 2022.
The EAI noted that the growing distrust in the U.S. extended deterrence — which jumped from 26.2 percent last year to 47.4 percent this year — correlates with the increased calls for South Korea to develop its own nuclear capabilities. Despite significant moves by the South Korean and U.S. governments to strengthen extended deterrence, including the establishment of the Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG) and the signing of joint nuclear deterrence operational guidelines, public confidence in these measures has waned.
Trump-era distrust
Analysts attribute this trend partly to lingering doubts stemming from the administration of former U.S. President Donald Trump and concerns about his return in the upcoming presidential election.
During his presidency, Trump downplayed joint military exercises with South Korea, labelling them a “war game” that is “very expensive” and reducing or canceling them to support dialogue with North Korea. Adding to public concern is the absence of clear language on Korean Peninsula denuclearisation in both the Republican and Democratic party platforms in the United States, which were released earlier this year.
This also suggests that the public isn’t convinced of the government’s stance that the South Korea-U.S. alliance remains “steadfast” regardless of U.S. administration changes.
Support for Japan’s nuclear armament
The survey also revealed growing support for Japan’s potential nuclear armament if North Korea doesn’t give up on its own.
While only 9.1 percent of South Koreans supported the idea in 2022, that figure rose to 34.8 percent in this year’s poll, a nearly fourfold increase in just two years. This surge in support for Japan’s nuclear capabilities marks a departure from traditional public caution over Japan’s military expansion.
The growing threat from North Korea and the potential weakening of the U.S. nuclear umbrella due to shifting U.S. politics appear to have led to greater public backing for a joint South Korea-Japan approach to enhancing deterrence, according to analysts.
Amid this rising security anxiety from North Korea’s persistent threats, South Koreans are also increasingly recognising the need for closer security cooperation with Japan.
The poll showed that 70.8 percent of respondents believed that South Korea should strengthen security ties with Japan in response to North Korea’s growing nuclear and missile threat.
Of those, 35.6 percent called for sharing intelligence, while 21.6 percent supported the establishment of a policy coordination body for joint responses. This shows that one out of five respondents believes there should be stronger cooperation than the current General Security of Military Information Agreement, or Gsomia.
Republished from Korea JoongAng daily, October 10, 2024