Australia has only a few months of fuel reserves and we are on the edge of a technological revolution in transport. So in a strategic sense anything we could do to secure our fuel reserves or find alternatives to petroleum based fuels would make us more secure.
Australia has all the raw materials to manufacture most modern battery types. We do not refine the minerals, we ship the raw unrefined ores overseas and forgo any profits from producing refined metals. We also do not manufacture any significant complex engineering products from these minerals which we have in abundance.
One way our Federal and State Governments could kick start some local manufacturing of products such as metals, alloys and products such as batteries and fuel cells is to provide a secure ongoing local demand for these products. Companies such as the two largest battery manufacturers CATL and BYD often build overseas factories, even in the US. CATL/BYD or similar companies would be a good fit for a partnership in an Australian battery factory.
The continuous building of submarines and naval ships locally in a maritime country like Australia would come at a cost premium, but would provide many highly skilled technical jobs. The return on investment by government would be high, plus our fuel security and national security would significantly benefit.
We are about to embark on a very poorly thought out program of nuclear submarine acquisition via the AUKUS program initiated by Scott Morrison. This AUKUS nuclear submarine program has many pitfalls many of which have already been pointed out by people such as Paul Keating and Hugh White and many other important strategic thinkers. The most alarming AUKUS aspect is buying 2nd hand nuclear US Virginia Class attack submarines approaching the end of their operational life. Another more alarming aspect is embarking on designing and building a brand new class of nuclear attack submarines in conjunction with BAE. BAE’s reputation for timely and on cost delivery has suffered in British Astute nuclear submarine program and many other defence projects. Also concerning is reactors and much of the submarine’s high tech systems such as combat data, sensor arrays, propulsion, etc will be built in the US or UK, providing few technical jobs in Australia.
What do these AUKUS “white elephant” purchases have to do with rebuilding the Australian submarine and ship building industries? Abandoning AUKUS program would provide the seed funding for development for Australian capability and industries. Cost of approximately $368B over 30 years is a very large amount of money for maybe about 8 submarines if all goes according to plan and our strategic circumstances do not change over 30+ years.
How do we fix it? First step is to order “off the shelf” from Germany, Korea or Japan around 4-6 modern conventional Air Independent Propulsion (AIP) submarines instead of mid life refurbishing of the Collins Class mid life upgrade which will cost $6B to $10B. The funds saved used to buy new replacement AIP submarines for the very old Collins. This step does two important things: it fills our looming submarine capability gap quickly and gives us the opportunity to gain operational experience with modern AIP submarines. We should also use this purchase to develop a strong relationship with the supplier to help build our own Australian version of the AIP submarine in the longer term.
The next major step is to establish a battery manufacturing capability somewhere in Australia and battery metals refining using renewable energy at or near the mining sites or mines shipping ports. Both of these industries could be high priority targets for the Government’s $15B National Reconstruction Fund. The location of the battery manufacturing plant will be a political football among the states. It should however be near a port and manufacturing centre with nearby ship or submarine building facilities. South Australia (SA) would meet many of these criteria with the added advantage that Defence has significant infrastructure in SA and it was where our Collins Class submarines were built. Nearby location of Defence Science and Technology Group (DSTG) formerly the Defence Science and Technology Organisation (DSTO) has some of its major laboratories located in Adelaide. Support for the new defence technologies is critical for this type of development combining basic science and operational studies to optimally develop our military applications of various battery chemistries and fuel cell developments. Australia could become a world leader in battery technology and fuel cell development in military and civilian applications.
So in the long term what does Australia end up with instead of 8 expensive nuclear submarines in 2040 to 2050. We initially have before 2030 4-6 very capable AIP submarines as a replacement for our ageing 6 Collins Class submarines. These submarines provide the Navy with experience in operational use of AIP submarines and inform the design of the Australian continuous build submarine program. Concurrently with the acquisition of these overseas built submarines we set up a battery manufacturing factory making batteries suitable for submarine, ship and military use plus civilian uses. This would lead to a strong defence research effort in battery plus fuel cell design, chemistry and applications. Also through CSIRO fund research and development of onsite metals refining technologies using renewables. The key benefit is we become much less dependent on imported petroleum for our national security. Eventually, Australia for a lot less than $368BN has important new industries, many highly skilled jobs, a modern submarine fleet and ship building industry without facing a very big nuclear waste problem.
Terry O’Leary
Terry O’Leary worked at Garden Island Dockyard as Technical Officer Electronics & Communications in 1970s, then Hardware Engineer in IT industry and then Laboratory Manager. Served 6 years Army Reserve in 1970s & 1980s. Completed part time Applied Science Degree followed by Master of Applied Science.
Moved to Canberra in 1990 to work in Defence as an Analyst. Then worked as Senior Professional Officer for DSTO in Navy Office. Attended Joint Services Staff College and completed Master Degree at ADFA UNSW Campus in Management. Worked in Defence Project Managment and left Defence to teach at Canberra Institute of Technology till retirement.