If, as the US military, Pentagon and congress hawks obsess, a war against China is likely in 2027, AUKUS will leave Australians defenceless in the event of any retaliation to US aggression.
With second-hand, 30 year-old Virginia subs not arriving from the U.S. until 2032 at the earliest, it’s too late. 2042 onwards for possible Aussie-built vessels is navel gazing to say the least. Un-manned underwater vessels (UUV’s) have been trialed for several years and China has developed a device that, attached to a drone, can detect any submarine. Other navies expect to soon have the same capabilities backed up with swarms of drones to attack subs.
Aside from that, Minister Marles has not told the parliament or the people that right up to the point of delivery, the President, the Pentagon and the Armed Services Committees of the House and the Senate can individually veto or modify the sale agreement for the SSN submarines. This power applies to all armaments and equipment. To further complicate matters, individual manufacturers hold intellectual property rights as do their sub-contractors meaning that operation, use, maintenance and modification are subject to those rights.
Australia’s Collins Class subs manufactured between 1996 and 2003, are to be rebuilt to cover the gap. It will take two years for each vessel at a total cost of $6 billion. Given the Navy’s inability to retain sub-mariners, it’s likely that only one or two boats would be on active service. The Navy only has 7 frigates and 3 destroyers to defend one of the world’s largest coastlines. Patrol boats and surveillance ships don’t count.
The Airforce has 24 F/A-18 Super Hornets, 12 EA-18G Growlers and 72 F-35A fighter/bombers located in the NT and NSW. The F-35 was a bad choice by the Defence Department. Its range is about 2000 kms say Darwin to Bali, not to Java or beyond. The aircraft cannot fly at top speed or engage in dog fights for extended periods because the engine overheats. The gattling gun problem has been resolved and now shoots straight, however the vibration causes cracking in the support frame. A further issue for pilots is the firing time limitation as only one magazine is fitted and lasts only three seconds. Recently the Airforce granted approval for the F-35 to fly into thunderstorms but only in mission combat. There was a concern over the plane catching fire from a lightning strike. The aircraft’s manufacturer, Lockheed Martin, has over 100 planes parked on site as the Pentagon refuses to accept delivery due to technical issues.
The ADF has no missile defence systems to protect cities, airports, military bases, sea ports, critical industries, power stations and other infrastructure and facilities. Similarly, there are no armed drone capabilities.
Australia is a prime target in any US war against China having waived legal Constitutional sovereign rights allowing foreign nuclear weapons capable naval and military aircraft to operate from Australian soil. Australia also hosts US operated spy and surveillance bases that are primary targets.
Australia could literally be wiped off the map in any US war against China as there is no defence against China’s long range, hypersonic missiles.
John Brennan
John Brennan, Retired Environmental Consultant.