The rise of anti-establishment politics reflects a deeper loss of confidence in Australia’s economic model, making investment in science, research and innovation central to rebuilding productivity, opportunity and trust.
The surge in support for One Nation is often explained away as a protest vote, a reaction to migration, cultural anxiety or dissatisfaction with the major parties. But such explanations risk missing the deeper story. If current polling trends are sustained, they point to something more profound: a growing belief among many Australians that the economic and political model which has governed the country for the past four decades is no longer working for them.
The rise of anti-establishment politics should be understood not merely as a political phenomenon but as a symptom of a broader crisis of confidence. Trust in institutions is declining. Trust in governments is declining. Trust in business, media and public authorities is weakening. Increasingly, many Australians doubt that the future will be better than the past.
This matters because democracies ultimately rely on public confidence that the system can deliver opportunity, fairness and security. When that confidence erodes, political fragmentation follows.
The Strategic Examination of Research and Development (SERD), Ambitious Australia, provides an important framework for understanding why this is occurring and what might be done about it.
The report bluntly argues that Australia’s neoliberal economic model is reaching its limits. For decades, economic growth has been driven by population expansion, resource extraction and rising asset values. Australia became accustomed to prosperity generated by what critics have described as a “beach and quarry” economy.
But the conditions that sustained that model are changing.
As the Prime Minister recently observed, the stable and predictable world of ever-expanding free trade has gone. International conflict, strategic competition, technological disruption and declining productivity are creating new economic realities. The assumptions of the post-war economic order no longer apply.
The consequence is a growing sense of insecurity, particularly among younger Australians. The survey evidence suggests Generation Z is leading the decline in trust across institutions. Given the pressures they face – housing affordability, insecure employment, stagnant wages and concerns about future living standards – this should surprise no one.
The trust deficit has a profound economic dimension.
People are more likely to lose faith in political institutions when they believe those institutions are incapable of solving practical problems. They become receptive to anti-establishment movements when they see governments managing decline rather than building opportunity.
This is where science, research and innovation become politically important.
Too often science policy is treated as a niche concern relevant only to universities, researchers and technology companies. In reality, investment in science is fundamentally about national renewal.
Science and research have consistently delivered economic, social and environmental dividends. They improve productivity, create industries, generate jobs and enhance living standards. They provide practical solutions to real-world challenges.
The SERD report highlights a striking reality. Since World War Two, global economic growth has largely derived from technological advances. Since 1990, around 90 per cent of those technological advances have been driven by basic research discoveries.
The implication is clear. Countries that invest in research and development are investing directly in their future prosperity.
Reputable international studies demonstrate that research and development investment delivers deeper and more enduring productivity gains than many other forms of public expenditure.
Yet Australia continues to underperform.
The Commonwealth currently spends around $15 billion on the innovation system, but that investment has been declining as a share of GDP. To merely reach the OECD average, Australia would need to increase research and development investment by approximately 43 per cent.
The problem is not simply one of funding.
The SERD report argues that Australia’s innovation ecosystem has become fragmented, cumbersome and ineffective. Funding is dispersed. Incentives are inconsistent. The system is difficult for businesses to navigate and often fails to support research through to commercialisation. Basic research now is only a third of public funding.
The result is an innovation system that is not merely underfunded but underperforming.
More importantly, Australia has failed to embed research and innovation into its national identity.
Australians celebrate sporting achievement but often fail to recognise scientists, innovators and entrepreneurs with comparable enthusiasm. Research, development and innovation are not widely seen as essential national priorities.
This cultural challenge has political consequences.
A society that undervalues science may struggle to appreciate how innovation can improve everyday lives. It may fail to connect research investment with better jobs, stronger industries and rising living standards. It may become vulnerable to narratives that frame expertise itself as part of a disconnected elite.
That vulnerability is becoming increasingly apparent internationally. Across many democracies, right-wing anti-establishment movements have challenged scientific institutions, particularly around issues such as climate change, public health and technological change.
Australia is not immune from these trends.
Although Australians generally retain higher levels of trust in scientists than many comparable countries, survey evidence suggests trust has declined since 2019. Public attitudes towards science and technology are also becoming more polarised. Support for emerging technologies correlates strongly with education levels, income and broader institutional trust.
This presents a challenge not only for scientists but for democracy itself.
Good science communication is therefore not a luxury. It is a democratic necessity.
Science communication must do more than explain technical findings. It must demonstrate how science provides solutions that improve people’s lives. It must connect innovation to jobs, industries and communities. It must offer practical hope at a time when many Australians are questioning whether progress is still possible.
Science can help rebuild trust because it deals in evidence, problem-solving and tangible outcomes. It shows that collective effort can produce results. It demonstrates that public institutions can still make a positive difference.
The SERD report provides a roadmap for such a project. Its recommendations include a practical focus on research at scale, a world-class basic research scheme, incentives to build business capability, stronger innovation cycles within industry, workforce development and political leadership that places innovation at the centre of national strategy.
Most importantly, the report offers something that contemporary politics often lacks: a long-term vision.
Australia faces a defining decade. The 2002 Intergenerational Report projected that GDP per person would grow by 90 per cent over 40 years. By 2023, that expectation had fallen to just 57 per cent.
Without significant reform, future generations may experience declining living standards and reduced economic opportunity.
That is the real political challenge confronting Australia.
The rise of One Nation and other anti-establishment movements should be understood as a warning signal. It reflects growing frustration with an economic model that many believe no longer delivers for ordinary people. It reflects declining trust in institutions and scepticism about the future.
The answer cannot simply be to condemn those voters or dismiss their concerns.
The answer is to build an economy that once again generates opportunity, productivity and hope. Science, research and innovation are not the entire solution, but they are an indispensable part of it.
The current budget tax changes on property are a step in the right direction. We can anticipate further focused support for start-up businesses in the second tranche of legislation later this year.
The choice before Australia is whether it continues to manage decline through short-term fixes and political caution, or whether it embraces the ambitious reforms necessary to create a more prosperous and equitable future.
Rebuilding trust in democracy ultimately requires demonstrating that democracy can still deliver.
Science can help show the way.
Kim Carr is a former Labor Senator and Minister, and is currently Vice-Chancellor’s Professorial Fellow, Monash University