Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in the dying days of Donald Trump’s presidency, announced on 9 January that all “contact guidelines” regulating when and how US officials could interact with their Taiwan counterparts were “null and void.”
He did not go so far as to endorse official relations, but he described Taiwan as an “unofficial partner.” This has greatly heightened the risk of retaliatory action by China that might even lead to conflict. That possibility again raises the question of which side Canberra would take.
Pompeo’s statement slammed existing US policies as attempts to appease the Communist regime and promised that this annulment would do away with the “self-imposed restrictions of our permanent bureaucracy.” In one sense, this is just the latest in a series of pro-Taiwan measures, following on record arms sales, visits by senior officials including the Secretary for Health and Human Services Alex Azar, and the enactment of the Taiwan Allies International Protection and Enhancement Initiative and the Taiwan Assurances Act that will force a review of the bilateral diplomatic relationship. The US Ambassador to the UN, Kelly Craft, was due to travel to Taiwan on 13 January.
Taiwan officials have welcomed the latest moves, which they see as steps in the direction of normalizing relations. Foreign Minister Joseph Wu tweeted his support. Press opinion in Taiwan is however divided. The Pan Green Liberty Times in an editorial comment endorsed the latest move, saying it would stiffen Biden’s resolve to “frame” Beijing, while the Pan Blue United Daily saw no benefits for Taiwan since the new US administration would surely conduct a thorough review of China policies.
In Hong Kong, the South China Morning Post, warned that Trump might take further action to anger Beijing such as sending military aircraft or ships to visit, but quoted unnamed Chinese observers warning Beijing to be alert but not alarmed.
Meanwhile, on 10 January, Foreign Minister Marise Payne joined her counterparts from Canada, the UK and the US in a joint statement on arrests of 55 suspects in Hong Kong under the terms of the new National Security Law. (All except one have subsequently been released.) This shows the sources of our China policies.
Beijing in fact has been quite restrained in its reaction to Pompeo’s statement. Zhao Lijian, Foreign Ministry spokesperson, said, “We advise Mr Pompeo and his likes to recognise the historical trend, stop manipulating Taiwan-related issues, stop retrogressive acts and stop going further down the wrong and dangerous path, otherwise they will be harshly punished by history.” Beijing does not want to prejudice relations with Biden and the incoming administration by precipitate action. If there are no unforeseen fireworks from either side, Biden is likely to stick to existing policies that are governed by the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act and the One China Policy.
What was it that drove Pompeo to let off this cracker, just days before his leaving office? So far, as far as diplomatic relations are concerned, the chess moves have been entirely predictable and only presage stalemate. It seems that the reasons for his statement may be found in Washington, not in the South China Sea.
The Falun Gong cult, which has evolved into a powerful political lobby with its own online media and press including the Epoch Times, has been a major donor and sponsor of Trump’s campaign for re-election. Falun Gong banners were raised in last week’s rally in Washington, according to the South China Morning Post and Falun Gong leaflets have been distributed at pro-Trump rallies in other states. The Taiwan independence lobby is also a powerful force in Washington. While the international press focussed on Trump’s support from right wing Hispanic voters, the influence of the ethnic Chinese American community should not be overlooked. These people back Pompeo’s statement.
It is said that Samson, when he pulled down the pillars of the Temple to Dagon, destroyed more Philistines when he died than when he was alive. So it might also be with Mike Pompeo. Perhaps he had been reading Milton’s Samson Agonistes, “Boast not of what thou would’st have done, but do What then thou would’st.”
Jocelyn Chey is Visiting Professor at the University of Sydney and Adjunct Professor at Western Sydney University and UTS. She formerly held diplomatic posts in China and Hong Kong. She is a member of the Order of Australia (AM) and a Fellow of the Australian Institute of International Affairs.
Comments
7 responses to “Planting booby traps for Joe Biden in Taiwan”
I was very disturbed by an editorial on the 10/01/21 in the Global Times, which basically confirmed everything you have said here Jocelyn, but from the direct Chinese point of view. Why it shocked me is that I’m used to reading stories on the online newspaper that discuss or criticize American and Australian attitudes to China, and they are usually reasonably sober, but this article brandished a very different reaction in approach, and it was not just an opinion, but the editorial. The article was not only about puffing up feathers with bellicose talk, but also forewarning that some sort of aggressive action may take place in the straits between Taiwan and China within the next 10 days after the article was written. It corresponded with the last few days of Trump’s presidency. My point here is not to say that the Chinese are the aggressors here, but that they seriously saw a conflict heading their way very soon whereby they were psychologically priming themselves up for a conflict.
As I said above, it corresponded with what you write here. Pompeo and Trump have been cooking up a storm in Taiwan for a long time. Trump increased weapons sales to Taiwan significantly and he also turned the American representation there into a de facto embassy. But since Pompeo has been Trump’s servant he’s the one causing most of the problems as a proxy for Trump. Pompeo recently made tour of SE Asia to push ‘regime change’ and certainly has been poking his nose at China using a willing accomplice in Taiwan. The US officially recognises the One China policy, but is doing the very opposite in actions. The US is clearly very active as agitator in Taiwan, and it has pushed both politically and financially since the very beginning of the Chinese civil war only the Kuomintang side of Chiang Kai-shek. This to the point that in earlier times when the revolution was taking place in China, Chiang Kai-shek earned the sobriquet of ‘Cash my check’. After the civil war when Mao had won, he wrote to the US hoping to restart relations, but he received no reply. This is all recorded in history.
I have been thinking about what Nancy Pelosi’s motivations for pressing the Pentagon to assure her that Trump could not act on a whim, or simply out of revenge (as he is well known for) actually were. I think it was for three likely reasons.
1. Trump might try to call in the military to back his obvious insurrection.
2. Trump as analysed by his niece (a highly qualified psychologist) and many others in the profession, is a narcissist, psychopath, and sadist. He is known to actively pursue revenge and is proud of it. In that case, maybe he would just press the infamous button and blow us all to pieces if he was going to go down himself.
3. Trump may order the military to take action in the straits between Taiwan and China, not only out of vengeance, but also to encumber Biden who already has far too much on his plate, with a war (or who knows where it will go conflict) just out of malice.
I’m also thinking Pompeo who is also fuelled with Pentecostal zeal, holds similar views to many ultra right wing Christian religious conspiracy theorists in the US that actually are again promoting the Yellow Peril madness that bears many similarities to views of Kaiser II in Germany in the 1880’s (I kid you not, they are whacky). Many of the Kaiser’s views, and similar views of others, were also promulgated in Australia, in some cases earlier than 1880 in public.
Which brings me to our federal government. The prime minister has shown a great reluctance to criticise Trump, or rein in his party on their support for Trump’s ‘fraudulent election’ claims. Immediately the debate on free speech has resurfaced, it is a tool of the IPA here as well. Of course there is never any discussion about what freedom of speech actually means, but it is largely interpreted as the freedom to selfishly say anything you want, to anybody without considering any consequence that it may bear on the targeted person. It is often invoked by racist governments, or governments who use racism as a tool – ones that seek bigots and racists to do their dirty work. And in the case of the federal government freedom of speech appears contradictory because they frequently seek to censor any view that disagrees with their fascist ideology. Fascism and freedom of speech is an oxymoron.
Its only been a few weeks since Morrison reached a zenith in criticism of China backed by his media cheer squad of anti-China supporters. But they have all gone a little silent lately.
This is pure speculation, but was this government packed with its Pentecostals and Evangelists in Cabinet cooking up something with Trump? Were we to be the megaphone that would help trigger a conflict? Even still push for one after Trump lost? Maybe they thought he was coming back.
It would be very good to find out. In the last few days looking at US conspiracy theories, I am utterly shocked by the resurgence of people who call themselves Christians but hold very, very weird views. It is shock when you read what they say, and its full of early 19th Century ‘yellow peril’ and racist interpretations they cobble out of the Bible.
I just hope impeachment and some control over Trump’s power may cool things off.
Chinese leaders have said more than a few times in the past that they are prepared to pay ANY price, like 100 million dead, to forestall a truly independent republic for Taiwan. Taiwan is not only a nationalist issue, but a deeply emotional one for them. The US is playing with real fire. But then again Pentecostals and Evangelists are batshit crazy. Whatever Australia does, we had better make sure that, as a result of signing up for the QUAD, we don’t find a few inter-continental nuclear missiles raining on Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane. How do we educate the ideological imbeciles of the LNP of the danger?
Thanks for you comment Man Lee
I’ll link the GT article below. Don’t know if you got to read it because it is four days ago now since it appeared. It would be good to have your point of view on it. I thought it was beyond the usual volume but you may be a better judge of it than me. It also speaks of an actual event within the time frame between here and Biden’s inauguration.
After reading MaryJoy333’s comments the other day which I know you also read I was shocked about just how crazy it was. But I’m more shocked again to find out that this sort of view is widespread among the religious right in the US and with some here as well. It’s like medieval thinking.
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202101/1212504.shtml
Thanks for the link, George. I hadn’t read it previously.
We will never know the real reason for the US to cancel the hugely provocative trip to Taiwan by Ambassador to the UN, Kelly Craft. The visit would probably have triggered a Chinese military show of force. The Chinese would have felt that they had no choice, as per the reasoning in that Global Times editorial.
Pompeo is mad, to the extent that he is fantasising about his Christian Rapture. It is dangerous when you have madmen in charge!
We can only hope that the incoming Biden guys are a little saner. That will hopefully discourage our own mad colonial-fascist thugs in Canberra’s corridors of power, and for them not to start itching for some action in the South China Sea.
Especially when, from the other side of the planet, the Royal Navy already has plans to send the UK’s new Carrier Strike Group, to stick it up to the Chinese! (with F-35’s, etc!) It will be scary if they decide to sail within the 12 miles of the Chinese islands.
Thanks for a direct and sober analysis. Let’s hope Trump’s hands are tied now, that may make a big difference.
No consideration to the peace and security of the United States just personal hubris.
There must be some purpose in what Trump and Pompeo did in their last days in ofice. Instead of just passing the ball to the next team, they decided to booby-trap the ball and lace it with unknown irritants. The release of the China papers (declassified early) by the Trump team has also ensured the next Biden Presidency would be a poison chalice. Americans are so divided that they have forgotten the proper democratic process of peaceful and dignified in passing the baton of power. Instead they choose to become spoilers.
Taiwan probably feel excited by a change of US policy encouraging them to take the independence road. This is a booby-trap set at the expense of Taiwan and when the real war starts, where will the US 7th fleet be? Would US risks her aircraft carriers as target practice for the Chinese supersonic missiles? Even if China did not go to war with Taiwan, the soft power diplomacy of China will continue to squeeze Taiwan’s economy and her ability to trade with any countries recognised by China. Hence, Pompeo’s words does not help Taiwan at all and instead encourage China to be harsher to Taiwan for no good reasons, other than face savings. Taiwanese should tell Pompeo to mind his own business as his term is ending, and let the Chinese resolve their own “unfinished” cvil war based on mutual respect and hopefully one day, will reunite with China for peace and properity for all the Chinese people.