Newly created accounts made around $1 million betting on the precise timing of US strikes on Iran, prompting calls for investigation into whether prediction markets are being used to profit from war.
Bettors on the prediction platform Polymarket made a killing with suspiciously timed wagers that the United States would attack Iran by February 28, the day President Donald Trump announced a bombing campaign against the Middle East nation.
Bloomberg reported that six accounts on Polymarket, all newly created this month, “made around $1 million in profit” by betting on the timing of the US attack on Iran. The accounts, according to Bloomberg, “had only ever placed bets on when US strikes might occur,” and “some of their shares were purchased, in some cases at roughly a dime apiece, hours before the first explosions were reported in Tehran.”
One account with the name Magamyman raked in over $515,000 by betting roughly $87,000 that the “US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026.”
The lucrative bets quickly drew scrutiny from lawmakers. US Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) wrote on social media that “it’s insane this is legal.”
“People around Trump are profiting off war and death,” Murphy alleged. “I’m introducing legislation ASAP to ban this.”
Rep. Mike Levin (D-Calif.) wrote that “prediction markets cannot be a vehicle for profiting off advance knowledge of military action” and demanded “answers, transparency, and oversight.”
“Reminder that Donald Trump Jr. sits on Polymarket’s advisory board and his firm invested double-digit millions into the platform last year,” Levin wrote, referring to the president’s eldest son. “The [Justice Department] and [Commodity Futures Trading Commission] both had active investigations into Polymarket that were dropped after Trump took office.”
There’s no concrete evidence that Trump administration officials or staffers were behind the hugely profitable bets, but the wagers heightened concerns about the possibility of insider trading using increasingly popular prediction market platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi. Last month, bettors used Polymarket to make big profits on suspiciously timed wagers on when the US would oust Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.
Polymarket currently allows users to bet on when Iran will have a new supreme leader, when the US and Iran will reach a ceasefire agreement, and when the US will invade Iran.
The celebrity news tabloid TMZ reported Saturday that “a group at a Washington, DC restaurant was talking openly in the bar area Friday afternoon about a national secret that was about to literally explode hours later – the bombing of Iran.”
As journalist David Bernstein noted, that – if true – leaves open the possibility that “these ‘insider’ bets have been placed by any rich person with good ears in DC.”
“Not to mention that for all we know these administration clowns were probably gossiping about it on a text chain with half a dozen people they accidentally invited,” Bernstein added. “This is hardly the locked lips brigade we’re dealing with.”
Republished from Common Dreams, 1 March 2026
Jake Johnson is a senior editor and staff writer for Common Dreams.