Labor’s primary vote has fallen to just 28 per cent as One Nation’s surge splits the right, yet the government remains on track to win the next election. With preference flows still uncertain, Labor faces pressure to address voters’ concerns over immigration, housing and the cost of living.
Another month of polling indicates that the new three-way split in Australian politics is permanent: a tad under a third of the first-preference vote to each of Labor, One Nation and the Coalition.
If support for One Nation had not surged, Labor’s primary-vote position would be diabolical and the usual self-fulfilling destabilising talk about leadership change would be rife.
Without One Nation, all of the dissatisfaction with the Labor Government would have resulted in a boost for the Coalition and Angus Taylor’s leadership would be unassailable.
As it is, the right’s vote is split and Labor, polling a paltry 28 per cent, and Prime Minister Albanese, with a net approval rating of minus 17, are seen as the likely winners of the next election.
The 28 per cent was mirrored in the YouGov poll and Morgan has Labor on just 25.5 per cent. Surely, these are government-losing figures. All three polls had One Nation between 24 and 16 per cent.
Yet, the government does not seem rattled, nor its backbenchers agitated. The reason, perhaps, is because the opinion pollsters have not been very active in testing the crucial question of how preferences would fall. They either ask the people they poll who would get their second preferences (in the absence of how-to-vote card guidance) or they extrapolate from the last election.
If the Coalition and One Nation do a deal on preferences, either nationally or in the bulk of seats individually, it could spell doom for Labor’s majority or government altogether. That would be subject to how rigidly the voters stick to how-to-vote cards.
What little evidence we have suggests that a good many voters do not follow how-to-vote cards. In the Farrer by-election, only 62 per cent of the votes in the Coalition column at the final distribution went to One Nation and 38 per cent went to the independent. That seat had a long history of voting for the Coalition and being well-disposed to the Coalition, but the voters did not do the Coalition’s bidding.
Nearly 20 per cent of the National Party’s preferences leaked out to the independent or One Nation, rather than going to the Liberals. It shows how a significant number of voters do not follow how-to-vote cards – even between the Coalition partners.
The YouGov and Morgan polls asked those polled who would get their second preference. On that basis, Labor was ahead of both the Coalition and One Nation by at least 52.5 to 47.5. A two-party-preferred margin like that would result in a Labor government. Perhaps that is why Labor is so relaxed and comfortable with just 28 per cent of the primary vote.
But those preferences were expressed without the benefit of a how-to-vote card and, in the event of a Coalition–One Nation how-to-vote-card preference deal, the result could be very different.
So, the absence of concern in Labor’s ranks is puzzling, even with the two years until the election being a long time in politics.
That said, the latest polls give Labor some comfort and some guidance as to what to do to lift its support.
Concern about the cost of living remains at the top of voters’ concerns, but only 36 per cent put it at the top of their list, down nine points from a month ago.
Many more voters supported the budget’s tax issues than opposed them (35 to 20) and many more supported lower house prices than opposed (60 to 10).
This tells us that a large percentage do not much care about the tax changes and are very happy that house prices are falling. It means government action leading to a result is appreciated.
Voter response on immigration is more instructive. Fifty-seven per cent say it is too high and only 27 say it is about right. By 54–26, respondents thought the federal government was handling immigration in an unplanned and unmanaged way. By 56–14, they supported stricter visa controls.
Again, voters are seeking action. Those polls were taken in a week that Labor squibbed announcing tightening immigration rules, when the minister, Tony Burke, cancelled a speech to the National Press Club on the question. It might suggest that the inaction troubled many voters.
Indeed, it is a fair assumption that unplanned, unmanaged immigration is one of the major reasons for One Nation’s surge in support. If Labor wants to get its primary vote into the 30s, it clearly needs to address the question. But, importantly, it has to make sure it does so in a way that cannot be described in any way as racist or anti-multiculturalism.
The Liberal Party has clearly lost an enormous amount of support in the cities because of its leaning towards One Nation on immigration and multiculturalism. One Nation’s call for a mono-culture has a clear racist undertone that is unacceptable to a majority of Australians. And therein lies the key to the next election. A significant number of Coalition voters cannot abide One Nation’s policies on multiculturalism and would therefore be reluctant to give it their preferences, whatever the how-to-vote card says.
In short, Labor needs to tighten up on overstayers and reduce numbers to ease pressure on housing, infrastructure and the environment while retaining strong support for multiculturalism and migrants who are already here. After all, the pressure on infrastructure (housing, health, education and transport) affects recent migrants more severely than most.
This article first appeared in The Canberra Times on 18 August 2026.
Republished from Crispin Hull
Crispin Hull
Crispin Hull has written for The Canberra Times for 30 years on a huge range of topics, but mainly legal and constitutional. He was Editor for seven years. He taught journalism at the University of Canberra, and is the author of ‘The High Court of Australia 1903-2003’ and ‘Canberra – Australia’s National Capital’. He is also a marine rescue skipper on the Great Barrier Reef with Marine Rescue Queensland.