If Scott Morrison ever went back to his old job of promoting tourism and needed to ramp up the travel industry, he would put his money on blimps. So gas is obviously the go. A sensible middle course, obviously the best option, even if it is the wrong one.
True, the gas-filled balloons have their drawbacks; the explosion of the Hindenburg was a bit of a setback. But surely they would be cheaper and more reliable than those new-fangled heavier-than-air machines.
Some of his colleagues would find even zeppelins a step too far and would prefer to stick to good old coal fired steamships. So Morrison would find room for them too. But those so-called aeroplanes would have to rise or fall without government assistance.
And of course it helps that, by pure coincidence, blimps are the preference of many of his hand-picked backers on his COVID Commission who have a financial interest in the industry. So gas is obviously the go. A sensible middle course, obviously the best option, even if it is the wrong one.
And the same applies to Morrison’s most recent attempt to devise an energy policy that he can trundle towards the next election. A gas–led recovery may not make sense to the scientists and economists, who regard gas as having become obsolete even before ScoMo’s latest thought bubble, but what would they know?
And industry has made its own position clear by refusing to invest in gas, ready to transition straight from coal to wind and solar, which it sees as the real future, on the cusp of overcoming the final problems of storage which would provide the base load the country needs
And confusingly, Morrison boasts that renewables are now commercially viable, so there is no longer a need for taxpayers to continue to subsidise them, And to prove the point, Mike Cannon-Brookes has offered to build a renewable plant to fill any gaps which appear when the worn-out Liddell coal fired station is finally closes – if in fact there are any gaps, which many doubt there will be.
But apparently gas and coal still need propping up, hence last week announcement that the new package of handouts to the lucky winners will include yet more government aid for the chimera of clean coal carbon capture, and the promise that if the private sector won’t stump up for a new gas-powered plant, the public sector will.
This outstanding example of free enterprise in action is more than just another tweak in another flawed policy. It is a declaration that the line has been crossed: science, engineering and logic cannot get in the way of politics and self interest.
Even words are to lose their meaning if they get in the way of the coalition’s agenda. Thus ARENA, the Australian Renewable Energy Agency, is to bring the clearly non-renewable resources of gas and coal into its arena Similarly the CEFC. the Clean Energy Finance Corporation, will not necessarily finance clean projects.
There will be resistance: legislation will be needed for the changes. The opposition is unhappy, although it is not clear how hard the invariably cautious leadership of Anthony Albanese will push back, And the crossbench, as always, will dither and dicker. Like coal and gas, the Morrison plan may become a stranded asset.
But as announceables go, it has been generally well received by the mainstream media and the business community is willing to give it a tick, if only because it gets them off the hook. After all, if Morrison is really so eager to pickup the tab, it will save them a lot of time and money.
And while private industry may not be prepared to do the heavy lifting – the funding, building and running of the contentious planned new gas and/or coal fired power stations — it can see a role in developing the infrastructure which will be required, whether the electricity comes from fossil fuels or renewables. So what’s not to like?
Well, mainly the planet. As mentioned last week, gas is not an emission-free fuel – it may be even dirtier than coal. It is certainly not the saviour, the fig-leaf Morrison can hide behind when he eventually has to confront the reality of his promises to honour the Paris agreement on climate change and the tougher goals that will inevitably follow.
The more sensible conservatives realize that even if gas can be brought on line it will take a while and will be a public cost – and it will probably result in higher charges to consumers as the greedy industry will set the benchmark against international price to raise it on the local market.
And given that Morrison is now quite open that this is all about driving down prices – reducing emissions is barely an afterthought – it is at best a short term fix and more likely little more than another distraction. Many more battles will be fought before a final solution to the long-running dilemma will be resolved, if it ever is.
So even the Colonel Blimps within the government will be looking for more and better announcements before, during and after the forthcoming budget. The party room is mollified – well, most of it. But the majority are still suspending judgment.
Any enthusiasm has come from the reactionary fringe, also known as the Murdoch press. Its propagandists have dropped any pretence of serious debate – the current line is to dismiss the very idea of putting wind and solar above gas and coal. Fossils are the past, present and future – at least for the moment.
The Energy Minister, Angus Taylor, says that renewables are booming anyway – and they are. But the increase is coming overwhelmingly from the domestic market. The large scale investment needed for industry has stalled, principally because the government cannot provide certainty about its long term policies.
But apparently determined to display his commitment to the environment, Morrison was photographed molesting a reluctant wombat. He did not actually extinguish the marsupial, but it was obvious that it was apprehensive – as we all should be.
However, Morrison was unfazed as he climbed back behind the wheel of his chosen Leyland P76 automobile to hurry home and review the footage on his video cassette recorder. It need hardly be said that he selected Beta over VHS.
Mungo MacCallum is a veteran political journalist and commentator. His books include Run Johnny Run, Poll Dancing, and Punch and Judy.
mungomccallum@staging-johnmenadue.kinsta.cloud
Comments
4 responses to “Morrison’s choice: blimps and gas-fired power”
Turn the rivers inland!
Back to basics: Our gas industry is surely praying that nobody tells Mr Morrison that all the gas in Australia belongs to us, the Australian people. This means we should not have to pay international prices for gas but only a reasonable reward to the industry that gets OUR gas out of the ground, processes it and pipes it to us. The same goes for all our other minerals. If Mr Morrison ever learns this he could become a local hero by giving us the cheap gas that could revitalise much of our industry.
Mungo, Even though your analogy is a good one, don’t worry too much. It is just a smokescreen to allow his supporters he is”doing something”. What might happen is than one or two 250 MW gas plants might be built alongside about 800-1,000 MW of batteries on the grid and behind the meter. Almost every wind and solar farm built from now on will either be built with onsite storage or they will contract with existing hydro or someone else’s batteries to take their excess when power prices are low.
There are a few periods each year when significantly more than 4 hours storage might be required so then the gas power plant kicks in. However that means that not only is Liddell redundant but within 3-5 years another two or three coal units in NSW are too, so having the gas plant running a few hundred to 1,000 hours a year actually allows you to close coal plants that run about 7,000 hours a year and reduce emissions by about 90%.
There will be very little extra gas actually produced under ScoMo’s schemes because gas use for power generation in NSW might go up a bit and stabilise in Victoria, it will continue to fall in Queensland, Tasmania and SA.
In export markets Qatar, Russia and the US are increasing gas production at prices our gas fields can’t compete with and worldwide demand is not increasing at the forecast pace, so it would not be at all surprising to see gas exports fall in the next few years while domestic demand declines quite quickly as gas use for space heating, cooking and power generation continue to fall. Gas use for power generation is already down 30% on 2015 figures and with all electric suburbs, hospitals and homes becoming more common gas can only continue to decline.
After its self proclaimed success of NBN 2.0, the government is intent on adding to its portfolio of stranded assets. But for the record, the commercial television industry at the time standardised on Beta for program and commercial previews because it was technically superior. Much like MacOS. The problem was with restricted licencing, there was no Steve Jobs with the charisma to make Beta appealing to the masses.