A crunch day for Australia on Tuesday – and not just for the Melbourne Cup, vital as that is for the nation’s well-being. November 4 will determine whether the United States of America regains its sanity or embarks on another quadrennium of demented Trumpery.
And frankly I am not optimistic. Four years ago I thought it absurd that enough Americans could be hauled from their caves to risk the almighty gamble not only with their own immediate future but that of their compatriots, their allies, the entire world – that they were so fed up with the admittedly flawed but still workable system that had served them for two and a half centuries.
I thought that simple self-interest would prevail, that the mindless slogans about building walls, draining swamps and throwing opponents into jail would be seen as the bluff and bluster it was and that whatever the limits of Hillary Clinton’s appeal. she would at least be a safer pair of hands in troubled economic times than the mendacious wheeler-dealer.
I thought that the revelations about his personal behaviour — his financial chicanery, his refusal to come clean about his taxes and finally his boasts about grabbing pussies would make him unacceptable to a conservative republic.
And if nothing else had ended the farce, I thought that he had offended, denigrated and outraged so many Americans – particularly women, blacks and Latinos – that he could never secure even the minority vote that would deliver him the electoral college.
But of course I was wrong, as were the vast majority of other observers. And having been bitten once, I am shy to the point of despair, because having jumped off the cliff once and survived, there is no good reason for the lemmings not to repeat the plunge.
Joe Biden may have many splendid qualities, but he is not an inspirational leader. And while simply being not Trump is a rational response to an unhinged braggadocio, it can hardly be regarded as a killer policy. From where I sit, admittedly many thousands of kilometres away on the other side of the Pacific, I do not detect any real momentum for change.
And the opinion polls are not helping. Because of the American system of voluntary voting, they are unreliable at the best of times, and in an election with unprecedented, massive early polling they are even less useful than normal.
And even if they are right, so what? Under the electoral college system a majority of votes is no guarantee of electing a president, as we saw in 2016 and many earlier elections. If Trump can manoeuvre his way through the federal labyrinth, he will not worry about how small the numbers are when he arrives back in the White House.
But at least it will all be over this week, won’t it? Well, probably not, Even if all the votes are counted promptly and the results appear to be clear, Trump and his goon squad have foreshadowed delays, protests, appeals, whatever it takes to obstruct the wishes of the people.
He may or may not enlist the aid of a Supreme Court dominated by his chosen reactionaries, but he will certainly maintain his rage through rallies, mass demonstrations of civil disobedience in the name of his sacred mission to keep the socialist radicals out of power.
So any win for Joe Biden, whether large or small, will be considered illegitimate and contested, leaving America riven and tormented. But a win for Trump could be even more horrendous: re-elected, he could abandon any pretence of restraint and become an apocalyptic megalomaniac capable of unleashing Armageddon just to show that he could.
Whatever the results, there will be riots in the streets. Actually there already are.
Of course those are the worst possibilities. It is conceivable that even if Trump refuses to concede defeat, those around him will blink and accept reality. and call the serious nurses in white coats to escort their former leader to a sedated retirement in a padded cell somewhere far from the madding crowds in Washington.
The Republicans could revert to being the GOP, a conservative political organization rather than a war party fuelled by partisan blood lust at the behest of a belligerent dictator. The evangelical right could admit the possibility of a separation of church and state. The warriors of the National Rifle Association could lay down their arms. Well, they could, but I’m not holding my breath.
And come what may, America is not going to be great again any time soon. So perhaps it is time to turn to a somewhat less catastrophic election, the result in Queensland.
Labor’s win was not a surprise, but securing a five per cent swing was certainly an unexpected bonus. There had been speculation that it would be very close – that Annastacia Palaszczuk may be forced back into minority government. Instead regional Queensland held firm and even the marginals in Townsville and Cairns could not be swayed.
The premier was rewarded for her resolute defiance on the borders and freedom fighter Scott Morrison’s incursion into the sunshine state was clearly counterproductive. And the opposition LNP remained determinedly divided. Twelve years after merging, the disunited party still hasn’t worked out what it represents, or whom.
But the big story of the election was the collapse of the mad right. The One Nation vote plummeted and Clive Palmer’s millions were spent in vain – not only did he not win a seat, but his scare campaign failed to dent Labor. For once, Queenslanders did not go bananas.
Indeed, they showed exemplary judgment, endorsing incumbency and rejecting insanity.
But this, unfortunately, will be the choice facing Americans this week. Donald J Trump enjoys the power of office but the handicap of senile dementia. We are about to find out which is more important, not just to a fractured electorate, but to the country which, for all its manifest faults, is still the last, best hope of the world.
Now back to the Melbourne Cup.
Mungo MacCallum is a veteran political journalist and commentator. His books include Run Johnny Run, Poll Dancing, and Punch and Judy.
mungomccallum@staging-johnmenadue.kinsta.cloud
Comments
12 responses to “Trump. The mendacious wheeler-dealer”
To claim, as Mungo does in this article, that Trump has dementia when it is doubtful he does, and to not mention Biden who clearly does suffer from this blight is lazy and biased journalism.
To further comment on Trump’s shady business dealings, which I am sure is true, and to again not mention Biden’s equally shady and quickly surfacing business dealings is just more lazy and biased journalism.
OK, so you don’t like Trump. Why not just say so and leave it at that?
Sorry Hal but any attempt to equate Trump’s behaviour with Biden’s is way off the mark. Have another look at your own bias.
Although I have generally enjoyed Mungo’s musings over the past several decades, I’m a bit gobsmacked that he believes that America is the last, best hope. I believe along with many global citizens that America is, was, and will continue to be the greatest threat to world peace and harmony we have ever faced. Noam Chomsky has been urging Americans to make the least worst choice and vote for Biden, as he urged them in 2016 to vote for Hillary. But many people who want to follow his advice are unable to make that choice when faced with Trump and Biden. It is a bit odd that if Americans who vote cannot decide who is worse between Trump and Biden, but Mungo, who lives thousands of kilometres from the real action, finds the choice so easy.
Excuse me, but US Pres. Donald J Trump is most emphatically NOT suffering dementia. Granted, detailed psychometric testing would probably show some early signs but that is expected in his eight decade. Nor, for the record, is he psychotic or in any other way suffering a formal mental illness.
What he shows is a most severe personality disorder, with strong psychopathic traits including lack of empathy and lack of remorse. For this reason, he is utterly unsuited, indeed, dangerous, for any position involving direct political power over any citizens, of any country. Sure, he hasn’t started World War III – yet. But if and when he does, it will be too late.
I was wrong alongside you last time, Mungo, and am fearful this time as well. Not that my opinion matters in the slightest. But what really upsets me about the current election is the voter suppression in a country that considers itself the leading democracy. And this is coming almost totally from one side, the Republicans. How can people who say they believe in democracy systematically disenfranchise as many people as possible whom they suspect will vote against Trump? It is deeply despicable.
Because they don’t really believe in democracy. It’s as simple as that.
I rather fear that is true. What they believe in is power, exercised quite nakedly.
I was in a Zoom meeting with Bob Carr last night and he made 2 powerful points. Firstly America is a Republic, but not a Democracy. Secondly, White Americans have specialised in what he aptly describes as ethnic antagonism from the very beginning.
Someone else in another forum made a similar point about republic but not democracy. Can you explain how this is so? In the US people vote for nearly everything, from police chiefs to primary school class presidents. What is the difference?
America is the last, best hope? You are backing a losing horse in a two horse race. Good luck with the bet on the Cup.
I’ve always enjoyed Mungo’s writing by ignoring the sentiment.
Imagine being such a slave to a foreign militarist empire that you pray for a polite well-spoken emperor who listens carefully to his advisors
America is the last, best hope? You are backing a losing horse in a two horse race. Good luck with the bet on the Cup.