Israel’s influence over US foreign policy is weakening as the political costs of unconditional support rise, and that shift may also reshape the pro-Israel lobby’s power in Australia.
There are signs the US war with Iran has hastened the decline of the influence of the pro-Israel lobby in the United States. That might also mean its influence will decline in Australia.
Israel is losing, and has little prospect of regaining, its dominant influence over US foreign policy stances and domestic political discourse. As the columnist Michael Hirsh has observed:
“Traditional support for Israel, once a largely unquestioned tenet of both (US) party platforms, is fast becoming a political liability. Israel could be in danger of losing not only its only real ally, but its main strategic pillar of support in the world.”
In coming weeks Netanyahu will continue to explore ways to collapse the already-fragile basis for US negotiations with Iran pursuant to the Memorandum of Understanding that signalled an end to the armed conflict.
Preparatory talks have stalled over Lebanon. Netanyahu will mount a determined campaign to continue the Israeli occupation, perhaps defying Trump on that specific issue in order to proceed to coming elections on better domestic political terms for himself.
Like the rest of his support base, Netanyahu would also welcome a resumption of the US conflict with Iran, heedless of the global economic and other consequences – and the absence of any military solutions to the circumstances in which the rest of the region finds itself.
But as Trump and Vance, to their credit, have made clear, a standoff with Washington does not constitute a realistic basis for sustaining an Israeli approach to the region based on the perpetual exercise of overwhelming military superiority.
Despite its astonishing record, it is generally accepted that Israel needs the backing of the United States for its military success. But the political, societal and informational underpinnings of the US-Israel relationship are changing.
Indeed Joshua Liefer, a columnist for Haaretz, argues that the US-Israel relationship has already entered a period of terminal decline, mostly as a result of backlash against over-reach on the part of right wing activists and Israeli politicians.
There may be implications in this situation for Australia.
Seizing upon the nationwide shock of the Bondi terror attack, the supporters of Israel have made determined efforts to direct attention away from the compelling, highly visible, deeply distressing evidence of Israel’s actions and its political orientation.
With the help of pliant politicians and media, lobbyists and well-placed individuals have sought instead to focus attention on posing legislative and other barriers to deserved criticism of Israel. They have done so mostly on the grounds that such criticism is either directly connected, or could possibly contribute, to rising antisemitism.
The timidity, if not acquiescence or worse, of the right – its fundamental disregard for human rights and decency where the Palestinians are concerned – in the face of Israel’s actions has posed risks to the Jewish community they claim to defend or in some cases, represent. That hasn’t stopped them trying.
But the backlash to such over-reach is evident here as well.
As in the United States, young Australians, from diverse ethnic and religious backgrounds, view Israel with antipathy. They are not swayed by Holocaust meta-narratives amidst the visual evidence of Gaza, Jewish settler terrorism and the deepening Israeli occupation of the West Bank.
In the absence of a Palestinian state, few Australians nowadays can defend the contemporary Zionist dream of perpetually privileging a Jewish ethno-religious minority over a Palestinian majority from the Jordan River to the Mediterranean.
Hardly any Australians would contest the view that Trump’s decision to go to war with Iran was a mistake, driven by Israeli pressure on the United States.
As in the United States, therefore, the pro-Israel lobby in Australia faces unprecedented challenges in sustaining its remarkably effective record in shaping government policy and positive societal perceptions of Israel.
Australian supporters of Israel must be aware that times are changing in Washington.
On the progressive side of the political spectrum, faced with Israel’s recent record, it would require a level of tone deafness of biblical proportions for Australian politicians from the Labor and independent mainstream to claim to share the values allegedly possessed by their Israeli counterparts.
And if Trump and his successors part company with Israel, for reasons of perceived US national interest, or for political expediency, the ANZUS (or AUKUS) alliance-based arguments, favoured by the Liberals since the days of John Howard, for aligning Australian stances toward Israel with those favoured by Washington will remain extant.
If indeed, the special alliance between the United States and Israel were to falter, and Israel were to face a new reality in its dealings with Washington, it would require an unusual willingness to delink their stance from that of their US opposite numbers for conservative politicians to back Israel instead of the United States.
Bob Bowker is an Honorary Professorial Fellow at the Centre for Arab and Islamic Studies at the Australian National University. He is a former Australian ambassador to several Arab countries.