US submarines at HMAS Stirling, B-52 rotations through Tindal and deepening military integration are tying Australia ever more closely to US strategic priorities – including the prospect of war with China over Taiwan, Paul Keating writes.
The claim by Michael McCaul, a visiting US Republican congressman, that US nuclear submarines rotating through Western Australia under the AUKUS pact “could be carrying nuclear weapons” is a very disturbing indication that the West Australian naval facility, HMAS Stirling, will in all likelihood be hosting American nuclear weapons.
In playing down the concern that hosting American nuclear weapons would make Australia a target, McCaul informed us that in his view Australia “was already a target”. I don’t think the community of Perth will be taking comfort from this advice.
With a continent of our own and a border with no one, we would have to be dumbstruck, and go out of one’s way, to become a target for anyone.
In uppity schoolmaster posture, McCaul told us it was “absolutely critical” that Australia backed any US intervention to protect Taiwan in the event of a US strike.
Any thinking Australian will be obliged to immediately ask the question: why would Australia have any interest in putting its cities and communities at risk to act militarily in support of Taiwan?
I have said repeatedly over the years, and will say again – Taiwan is not an Australian interest, certainly not a vital Australian interest, certainly not one we would go to war over.
McCaul made reference to the security alliance between Australia and the United States, co-operation in major battles and membership of the Five Eyes intelligence network. None of these references, no matter how long-standing, would warrant Australia joining an ill-conceived American war with China over Taiwan – a war America would certainly lose. But having lost, scuttle itself back to San Diego, leaving Australia vulnerable to China for having participated in a military escapade against it and its military assets.
These days, wars are won not simply by bravery but by military manufacturing capability. For instance, China’s massive dual-use shipyards allow it to mass produce multiple naval craft simultaneously, launching up to 10 ships per year, whereas the old defence industrial base of the United States is limited to an average 1.5 to two ships per year. And in a real stoush, China would double or triple that number.
The key point is the shape of Asia can only be determined by Asia itself, and not by the application of US military force. MacArthur painfully learnt that lesson in Korea in 1950, and against a preponderantly peasant Chinese military. What hope would the US have now? And what mugs would we be, in being dragged into it.
But other foreboding military events also occurred this week.
The first of six nuclear-capable, likely nuclear-armed B-52 bombers were deployed to the upgraded RAAF base Tindal in the Northern Territory. This is the first permanent deployment of American major bombing aircraft to Australia since World War II. The kind of air power integration the defence minister, Richard Marles, was yodelling approvingly about in Washington with Secretary Hegseth two weeks ago. Marles made a virtue of the continuing and rapid integration of Australian and American military forces. And to nail the trend, this week the government gave Lockheed Martin a A$1.32 billion contract to advance and sustain its Joint Air Battle Management System – a project which will further tie Australia’s air and missile defence assets to those of the United States.
In other words, Australia is now getting locked in and locked up to the military prerogatives of the United States. And as its sovereignty is effectively being shredded, the process is being lauded by the defence minister, who is principally appointed to guarantee its protection.
We will have more great coverage of AUKUS and Australia’s defence this weekend, including pieces from Albert Palazzo and Peter Briggs. Subscribe to the P&I newsletter here.
Paul Keating was the prime minister of Australia from 1991 to 1996.