The short-term world food crisis caused by the conflict in West Asia is superimposed on a far graver, deeper and longer-running risk of a collapse in global food production caused by the remorseless combination of climate change and losses of soil, water and biodiversity. (more…)
Category: Economy
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America builds AI, China uses it to transform systems
The US continues to lead in developing AI, but risks falling behind in deploying it at scale. China, once seen primarily as a follower, is positioning itself as a leader in implementation. If this persists, the consequences will be seen in the competitiveness of national economies. (more…)
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The PM is wrong: gas exports can and should be taxed
A 25 per cent on LNG exports will not affect either the volume or price of LNG exports. Customers therefore have nothing to fear, and the Prime Minister was wrong to stop the tax. (more…)
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Australia’s resilience is inseparable from Asia
Australia is anchored in Asia, yet elements of our defence posture continue to assume a different centre of gravity. This makes it difficult to reconcile long-term strategic planning with the region Australia relies on for its economic security and wellbeing. (more…)
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Supercharging our AI Safety Institute now could make all the difference
A modest increase in funding for Australia’s AI Safety Institute could position the country as a global leader in a fast-growing industry, while managing risks and unlocking major economic gains. (more…)
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Australia risks weakening itself by overcorrecting on China
Australia’s economic relationship with China remains strong, but growing restrictions on investment and research risk undermining long-term economic and national security. (more…)
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The gig economy promises freedom. The reality is different
What looks like reckless behaviour on the streets reflects a deeper system of incentives in the gig economy that rewards speed, constant availability and risk-taking. (more…)
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It’s time to tax gas exports in the national interest
The best way to stop the massive under-taxation of Australian LNG would be to fix the petroleum resource rent tax, but a quick second best would be a tax on export revenue. (more…)
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America owes itself and that is the problem
The US debt debate often focuses on foreign creditors, but the real issue lies within America’s own political and economic system. (more…)
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The real budget problem is what we call “spending”
Debates about debt and deficits overlook a central issue – large amounts of “spending” are hidden in tax concessions, subsidies and underpriced public resources. (more…)
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Labor’s foreign policy no longer matches the world it faces
In the second on our Rethinking Foreign Policy series Kym Davey says Labor’s foreign policy platform is out of step with current realities – clinging to US alliance settings while ignoring its own commitment to self-reliance and the opportunities of the Asia-Pacific. (more…)
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Why has populism’s influence increased politically
Claims that rising inequality is driving populism overlook the evidence – stagnant wages and falling living standards are the more likely cause. (more…)
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Women are reshaping the workforce – but power hasn’t followed
Women are increasingly dominant across education and the workforce, but leadership, workplace structures and social attitudes have failed to keep pace.
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Another interest rate rise will tip Australia into a recession we don’t have to have
A sharp fall in confidence and rising fuel prices point to a potential downturn, but traditional policy responses risk making the situation worse.
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‘A very dark picture’: IMF warns Trump’s Iran war could unleash global recession
The war on Iran is disrupting energy supplies, fuelling inflation and raising the risk of a global downturn, with the poorest countries set to suffer most. (more…)
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Stagflation risk puts tax reform back on the table
This budget will be especially challenging. Given the risks of stagflation, fiscal policy needs to be tightened. But in a cost-of-living crisis the main burden should fall on those who are relatively well off and that requires tax reform. (more…)
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By avoiding means testing, the government is giving handouts to the rich
Australia’s highly targeted tax and transfer system is being eroded by a shift toward universal benefits – redirecting support away from those who need it most.
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A costly rewrite of R&D – with no price tag
Proposed changes to Australia’s R&D tax system would expand eligibility beyond genuine research, concentrate benefits among a narrow group of firms, and proceed without clear costings.
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When the world changes, economic policy must too
A new geopolitical shock is exposing the limits of economic orthodoxy, echoing past crises where sticking to old rules only deepened the damage. (more…)
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Cost of living? We should be more concerned about something else
While cost-of-living pressures dominate headlines, deeper shifts are reshaping Australian politics – with Labor consolidating the centre and the Coalition struggling to respond.
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Australia is giving away billions in gas profits
Australia’s failure to properly tax gas exports is costing billions in public revenue, even as other countries capture windfall profits for national benefit. (more…)
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Unwinding the capital gains tax folly
Tax concessions on property and capital gains have driven housing inequality and distorted the market, and fixing them requires structural reform – not Budget tinkering. (more…)
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When will housing completions in Australia overtake population growth?
Australia’s housing pressures reflect years of mismatched policy – with falling supply colliding with surging migration and labour market shocks.
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Reform requires trust – and trust requires openness
Economic reform depends on public trust – and that trust is being undermined by declining transparency, weak accountability and limited public engagement.
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Productivity, inequality and the rise of populism
The rise in populism in numerous advanced economies has been driven by cost-of-living pressures. To protect our democracy, we will need faster productivity growth and all wages to rise with productivity. (more…)
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The three phases of Trump’s quagmire in Iran
Trump’s defenders argue that his contradictory actions are strategic. It’s more likely that panic has him flailing. His gut instinct led him to make a colossal mistake, and he has no idea what to do next. (more…)
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Tax reform isn’t enough – Australia needs an economic reset
Tax reform is necessary, but on its own it cannot fix an economy shaped by housing speculation, resource dependence and weak productivity. (more…)
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Budget savings for Chalmers – fix the bloated pay system at the top of the public service
As the government looks for budget savings, the biggest opportunity lies at the top. Senior public service pay and structures have become costly, inconsistent and hard to justify.
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Time for tax reform – and this may be the moment to act
With inequality rising and budget pressures mounting, a rare political window has opened for meaningful tax reform – if the government chooses to act.
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Australia’s superannuation pivot to America: prudent strategy or moment for pause?
Australian super funds are rapidly increasing investment in US tech and AI, concentrating risk and tying retirement savings to systems linked to modern warfare. (more…)